Independent strategic analysis
Deterrence begins with understanding the other side’s choice.
IDS examines how geography, credibility, and escalation shape security in Europe and beyond.
Featured analysis
The latest from IDS
The Other Direction · Fictional scenario
The Kaliningrad Fait Accompli
A narrated visual feature examining possession, escalation, civilian obligations, and the uncertain path back to recognized borders.
IDS Staff · September 22, 2026 · 32 min read
Our focus
Analysis for the space between peace and general war.
01
Deterrence
How threats, commitments, and restraint shape choice.
02
Escalation
How limited crises widen—and how they can remain bounded.
03
Strategic stability
How institutions and military postures affect long-term risk.